CSDS opinion poll predicts gain for AIADMK in TN, YSR Congress in Seemandhra
Around two month before Lok Sabha poll, a CSDS poll prediction for Tamil Nadu on Tuesday said that ruling AIADMK of Chief Minister Jayalalithaa could get 14-20 seat while former Chief Minister Karunanidhi’s DMK is projected to get 10-16 seats in the State which elects 39 representatives for the Lower House of Parliament if the poll was to be held today.
The survey also says that the ruling AIADMK may poll 30 while the main Opposition DMK is projected to poll 26 per cent of the vote share. The Congress is predicted to poll 10 per cent.
The BJP is projected to poll 12 per cent. The survey predicts that actor Vijaykanth led DMDK is predicted to get 4 per cent of the vote share in the State.
As far as the choice for Prime Ministerial candidate is concerned, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is preferred by 21 per cent people covered in the sample of the survey while the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi gets 16 per cent backing for the top job.
In a jolt to Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa’s ambition, she has got backing of mere 8 per cent people for the PM post.
The survey also reflects that dissatisfaction with the Jayalalithaa Government is gradually on the rise in the State. 52 per cent people covered in the survey said that they were satisfied with the Jayalalithaa Government while 41 per cent expressed dissatisfaction with here regime.
The survey predicts interesting results for Andhra Pradesh which was recently split into two separate States where elections for both the Assembly and Lok Sabha are expected to be held together.
The survey says that YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress Party is predicted to perform better than its other opponents in Seemandhara region. In Telangana, the TRS of K Chandrashekhara Rao is predicted to make a significant gain from the creation of the new State.
In the new State of Telangana, the Congress is the top preference of the voters followed by the TRS for Lok Sabha poll.
Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP trails to third position in Telangana. TDP is predicted to come second in rest of Andhra Pradesh after YSR Congress.
The united State sends 42 representatives to Lok Sabha.
YSR Congress is projected to bag 11-17 seats, TDP 10-16, Congress 6-12, TRS 6-12 and other 1-5 in the Lok Sabha poll. In Telangana, the TRS seems to be the first preference of the electors for the Assembly poll with 42 per cent vote share.
The Congress is preferred by mere 20 per cent support in the Assembly election. The TDP is projected to poll 11 per cent, the BJP 6 per cent, the YSRCP 2 per cent in the Assembly poll. In Lok Sabha election, the Congress is predicted to get 32 per cent of votes and the TRS 26 per cent votes respectively. The TDP may poll 11 per cent, the BJP 10 per cent, the YSRCP 1 per cent, the AAP 2 per cent and the others 18 per cent votes respectively.
As far as Prime Ministerial choice of the people of the two regions is concerned, BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi tops in Seemandhra, the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi gains slightly in Telangana, though a large number but respondents preferred not to name any one. Modi is backed by 17 per cent support in Telangana and 19 per cent in Seemandhra. Gandhi is backed by 18 per cent respondents in Telangana and 5 per cent in Seemandhra for the PM post.
Niticentral Staff is a Guest Contributor at Niti Central.