EVM rigging may play spoilsport with exit poll predictions


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13 May 2014

 
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EVM rigging may play spoilsport with exit poll predictions

Exit polls in India have become increasingly sophisticated, polling much bigger sample sizes and adjusting for different factors. While the Economic Times and Indian Express have come out with data from previous elections, it is worth noting that in 2004 and 2009 when the NDA ended up with far less than the exit polls predicted, we find major discrepancies.  Exit polls before 2004 appear to be fairly reliable. 2004 is also the year that EVMs were used for the entire Lok Sabha election across the country. While the Courts have ruled that EVMs can be tampered and that paper audits be installed, the Election Commission has only done a trial run of paper audits for the 2014 elections, though it had over two years to implement this feature.

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Exit polls have also been very reliable as recently as the exit polls for Assembly elections of 2013. The Lokiniti-CSDS post-poll survey predicted that the BJP would win 43 per cent of the votes in Rajasthan in 2013, the actual number was 45.1 per cent. In Madhya Pradesh, exit poll was 41 per cent for the BJP, actual was 44.9 per cent. In Chhattisgarh, 42 per cent was the estimate and the BJP actually got 41 per cent. In Delhi, exit polls predicted 33 per cent and BJP got 34 per cent. These points towards the reliability of the exit poll methodology used in recent times. Critics in the past have charged that exit polls may be unreliable because of ‘fear factor’ of people afraid to disclose who they voted for. However, no such factor appears to have played a significant role in the recent Assembly polls and it would be hard to make the case that Lok Sabha election, a few months later, would dramatically change that equation.

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The current CNN-IBN-Lokiniti-CSDS survey shows a range of 270-282 for the NDA with a margin of error of about 3 per cent. The APB-Nielson survey is fairly similar as well. Other estimates range from a low of 249 of the Times Now to a high of 340 of News 24. The mean value of 286 is fairly close to the cluster of predictions.

EVM rigging may play spoilsport with exit poll predictions

Source: Rediff. For CNN-IBN, midpoint of range has been used

Given the reliability of recent Assembly exit polls and the fairly consistent data from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, any significant deviation from these numbers would be cause for serious concern about election results manipulation and rigging.  The broadest range is 250-340 and anything below or above that needs to be investigated more thoroughly.

Rigging, TMC goons haunt WB re-polling

Exit polls depend on self-reporting. Rigging factors would not be captured in exit polls self-reporting. What kind of rigging would go undetected by exit polls?

1. Pre-poll EVM rigging, where the EVM is manipulated in such a way that all choices go to a single party. A number of such flawed machines were found.

2. EVM rigging during polls, where one person votes multiple times, as Sharad Pawar called for or is alleged to have happened in UP, Bihar and West Bengal.

3. Post-poll EVM capture and counting manipulation. This could happen with technology flaws to manipulate the final results and also it has been alleged that EVMs are not in safe custody.

 All these scenarios can result in a significant difference between the final results and the exit polls. Such a difference should not be taken lightly if it occurs in the 2014 Lok Sabha election results. The stakes for free and fair election in India are too high to be brushed away.

(Follow Sankrant Sanu on Twitter @sankrant for questions and comments)



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Sankrant Sanu is an entrepreneur, writer and researcher based in Seattle and Gurgaon. His essays were published in the book "Invading the Sacred" that contested Western academic writing on Hinduism and is a popular writer and blogs at sankrant.org. He is a graduate of IIT Kanpur and the University of Texas and holds six technology patents.

(c) NiTi Digital. Reproduction and/or reposting of this content is strictly prohibited under copyright laws.


 
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  • Sumedh

    Oh, smart author, lets forget the sampling/methodology/conversion problems for a moment, what makes you think that exit polls cannot be rigged (despite Operation Prime Minister showing clearly otherwise).

  • Knight Samar

    So, is the reverse also true ? If #BJP wins may be the EVMs were actually rigged and so were exit polls?

  • oneofthebillion

    A group of people from various sections, may be from within BJP are determined not to make Modi PM, because of various reasons, least is communal ones. I will not be surprised if BJP ends up 190 and so tempts them to a shaky government. This will push India further downward further and destroy BJP’s further chances in elections of 2017 or 2019. Any outcome is possible.

  • Manoj

    Yes, we can expect some surprises where 3 way or 4 way splits exist, however any huge variations should set alarm bells rining, notwithstanding the sicko tweets from AAPtards Knight Samar & Sumedh.
    The EVM machines have a clear flaw – no reliability or traceability built in. How hard could it have been for EVM to be programed so it only stored votes cast between 7 am- 7 pm on the date of election, and to be safeguarded by 3 independent passwords, which are in custody of each party?

  • Anil Kumar Tandale

    Upon ascending to office, the NDA should scrap EVMs and revert to paper ballots, even though counting process may be delayed a little, but the sanctity of vote is assured.

  • malavika

    EVM fraud is a serious issue and the EC did not use EVMs with paper trail and the BJP kept quiet. For the sake of integrity of Indian elections we must ensure paper trail and also give voters a choice of paper ballot.

  • V.N.Seetharam

    EVM fraud is a matter that has been so adroitly handled only by a hardened criminal party like Sonia’s. Can we forget how P.Chidambaram the loser was declared elected by the EVM? Criminals like Sonia can with her money power make any trick possible. In addition to all these note Sampath’s open and brazen defiance of the electoral propriety
    It is an oozing confidence in the criminal intent of Sonia that has propped such people and they should know. I am certain that Sonia will be declared the winner because of the impending fraud. Damn all exit polls and the people who have voted for Modi. It is a matter of life and death for the semi literate Italian Immigrant. Better you bloody Indians die rather than me and my beloved Priyanka Vadra and nursing baby Rahul. I have written repeatedly that even Modi gets close to 500 seats it is possible to declare him as the loser as in Chidambaram’s case. What happens then? Is the gutless tail tucking Hindu capable of a civil war? It is war and by hook or by crook Sonia has to win. From the time of Mahabharat cheating and trickery by dice has been an established norm. In such a situation don’t be surprised if the Semi literate Italian Immigrant crowns herself as the new Empress.

  • Sharmilla Ray

    This is the one thing that I have been fearing. It is certainly typical of the dirty tricks department of the Con-gress and its B-team the AAP, both with their ample foreign advisers and implementers, to tamper with the EVMs and deny victory to NaMo. In this, some BJP leaders might also be complicit, the Mir Jaffars and Jaichands, as some readers have pointed out. Anyhow I hope Divine Light shines upon NaMo and he and the BJP have a sweeping win.

  • Sharmilla Ray

    I had written previously:

    This is the one thing that I have been fearing. It is certainly typical
    of the dirty tricks department of the Con-gress and its B-team the AAP,
    both with their ample foreign advisers and implementers, to tamper with
    the EVMs and deny victory to NaMo. In this, some BJP leaders might also
    be complicit, the Mir Jaffars and Jaichands, as some readers have
    pointed out. Anyhow I hope Divine Light shines upon NaMo and he and the
    BJP have a sweeping win.

  • Sharmilla Ray

    I had always feared this: that the Con-gress and its B-team the AAP, both parties with their numerous foreign facilitators, would deny NaMo his and the BJP’s rightful victory. There are also the shades of the Mir Jaffars and Jaichands in the BJP itself, as some readers have pointed out, who might be turning a blind eye to this fraud. Anyhow I pray that Divine intervention prevails to make NaMo and the BJP win

  • Nagar Iyer

    Normally the EVM FRAUD does not happen in State Elections and Bye Elections where the focus is on very limited zones and constituencies and FRAUD DETECTION is likely.
    ===
    But EVM MANIPULATION FRAUD is attempted only during general Elections like 2004, 2009.
    ===
    There is a method to this fraud. Not all the EVMs of a particular constituency will manipulated. EVMs uniformly staggered across the nation will be manipulated.
    2009 is a surfeit case of EVM MANIPULATION FRAUD where 15% of the EVMs were manipulated.
    A manipulated EVM will register all the votes in favor of a PARTICULAR candidate – no matter the vote is cast in favor of any candidate.
    ===

  • anitha

    EVM FRAUD SUSPICION IS CREDIBLE AND LOOKS IMMINENT
    ==================================================
    Notice the AUDACITY with which scam after scam was perpetrated.

    Observe the fortitude and courage by which SC order on SIT was disregarded.

    Examine why the ARMY CHIEF is being appointed in a hurry though there are 2 more months to go to select a new one.

    Pay attention to the PATCHY and BLEMISHED record of the new Chief

    All these indicate undoubtedly towards MANIPULATED EVM FRAUD.

    The It-alian Mafia’s intention is not to form UPA III. All they want is establishing a PHYSICALLY HANDICAPPED government dependent on the Mafia’s support and which struggles for its own survival

    IF, ON 16th MAY, MODI IS UNABLE TO BECOME THE PM DUE TO THE EVM FRAUD, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A BREAK OUT OF CIVIL WAR.

    A friendly and vicious army chief is necessary to quell the Civil war without bothering about conscience.

  • Jairam

    BJP should prepare to sit in opposition, if it cannot take EVM manipulation seriously. From present indications, it is quite clear that Congress has already planned this long ago when Christian YSR appointee Sampath became EC. His image is completely tarnished due to failure to control rigging election in UP, Bihar and Bengal, despite election spread over 6 weeks and BJP repeatedly asking re-inforcement. Chidambaram is 100% confident of Congress coming to power, despite ground reality is different. How? and Why? Shakeel is also mighty confident of this impossible happening. Only way congress can come to power is by EVM manipulation and according to Murphy, if something can go wrong, it will happen and those unprepared will have to live in shock and shame, thereafter. Assembly elections are different. If that is the case, how come so many EVMs were found before Lok Sabha elections with all the votes going to Congress – same party of looters and liars. Wake Sampath and BJP.

  • VeVePe

    Interesting to see this article on NitiCentral, because BJP has so far refused to take the EVM rigging issue seriously.

  • Jairam

    Bye bye Niti for your censorship of my comments. With or without you India will win and Modi will succeed. You remind me of Indira, who murdered free speech.

  • Nagar Iyer

    EVM FRAUD SUSPICION IS CREDIBLE AND LOOKS IMMINENT
    ==================================================
    Notice the AUDACITY with which scam after scam was perpetrated.

    Observe the fortitude and courage by which SC order on SIT was disregarded.

    Examine why the ARMY CHIEF is being appointed in a hurry though there are 2
    more months to go to select a new one.

    Pay attention to the PATCHY and BLEMISHED record of the new Chief

    All these indicate undoubtedly towards MANIPULATED EVM FRAUD.

    The It-alian Mafia’s intention is not to form UPA III. All they want is
    establishing a PHYSICALLY HANDICAPPED government dependent on the Mafia’s
    support and which struggles for its own survival

    IF, ON 16th MAY, MODI IS UNABLE TO BECOME THE PM DUE TO THE EVM FRAUD, THERE IS
    A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A BREAK OUT OF CIVIL WAR.

    A friendly and vicious army chief is necessary to quell the Civil war without
    bothering about conscience.

    ====

  • Objectively Speaking

    No that is not possible. Are you really that stupid?

  • AJIT

    Oh, smart Sumedh: The exit polls have been conducted by several independent agencies – Times Now, IBN, NDTV, News 24 and many others. All of them show a unanimous victory for the BJP. All of them could not have been rigged.

  • anitha

    Why the gap of 3 full days after the last phase of elections???!!!
    =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
    12th May saw the completion of the last phase of elections LS2014

    There is an INEXPLICABLE gap of 3 days before commencement of counting!!!

    The partial manner in which Sampath conducted himself also raises concern and suspicion.

    It is also learnt that Sampath is very close to the ruling family

    LS 2009 witnessed Chawla fraudulently made UPA win through EVM Fraud

    LS2014 seems to be an effort to block the Chaiwala aided and abetted by Sampath

  • db

    i have been raising this issue since long. no media discussing on this.

    subramanyam swami has raised this question in supreme court and i think supreme court order to use paper trail along with evm. why not applied that?

  • FPDummy

    Good question, but unfortunately they are the ones opposing EVMs, not the Congress parry!

  • FPDummy

    Definitelyt? But is it possible ALL can fail totally opposite? We need at least one opinion poll favoring the opposite verdict, isnt it?

  • IRVA

    The real AAP AND ARVIND KEJRIWAL

    www[DOT]youtube[DOT]com/watch?v=uOrpn3zIs5c

    Ak is more dangerous than a snake !

  • http://sankrant.org Sankrant Sanu

    Hi, Exit polls can be rigged as well. However these polls are from a large number of independent media channels and their methodologies are public. It would be difficult to coordinate rigging across so many different surveys. Sampling errors are there which is why I have suggested the broadest 250-350 range. The assembly elections were a good trial run.

  • sachin

    ha ha ha losers.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    for that, BJP is not ruling India for last 10 years, are they? and only 8 of States are with BJP currently… fairly impossible for BJP while fairly easy for the ruling party. Lets not forget how BJP has been attacked by all these channels, and medias since past 10 years continously, even when BJP was not the cause for the scams and corrpution that surfaced, not the least of all, the banaras rally ban by EC, and BJP office raid by EC, FIR against Modi bhai etc etc. BJP believes in moral values and political decency. I am not saying its perfect, but can anybody show another party which behaved decently like BJP, when they were in opposition?

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    exit polls could be rigged, but only the ruling parties in any country will have the required power to do it, not a party which is sitting in opposition for 10 years, and continuously taking flak from all these medias and channels for sins they didnt commit

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    excellent & well-researched article, really! this is a serious factor which is worrying me ever since i saw the 2009 election results… In 2009, everybody knew what the results are going to be, but congress was saying with “100% certainty” that they will win with .. and when the results came, everybody was shocked.. In 2014 also congress is saying with “100% certainty” that they will win, even when every citizen believe otherwise. So that puts my worries to newer heights. Its not about whether BJP wins or Congress wins, but its about having a safe and clean democracy, where all citizens of india can choose who should rule them for the next 5 years, and not a handful of tech-savvy people. If we check global history, we can see that, in any country, whenever governments were formed by fooling people, and against peoples’ will, that all ended in civil wars.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    i am interested in this nation-wide distribution of manipulated-EVM fact.. If any statisticians is reading this, can they please please check the relation between a nation-wide distribution of faulty-EVM and factors like number of candidates in each constituency, current winner party etc? Is there a relation between this and the number of candidates contesting? because i have always wondered why so many people who were neither famous, and nor did have even a chance to get 0.1% votes, were contesting elections for the sake of contesting? please, if any statistician is there, kindly study the relation between a nation-wide distribution of faulty-EVM and number of candidates contesting per constituency, current winner party etc?….

  • sunanda6262

    If there is a Modi wave and you are confident of winning 276 seats why are you worried about EVM FRAUD. Electoral fraud is perpetuated by all political parties in India. No one is holier than the other. If you have been fighting elections for so many years you have to be prepared for all these things. BJP, Congress all are one and the same. The basic thread on which the party fabric is woven is all the same. All are bunch of opportunists and self centered people for whom the it is always I, me and myself before the country.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    when some party does EVM-fraud in any country to change peoples choice, how are you thinking the same choiceis going to come out clean? People’s choice itself is coming out through EVMs, not through any other means, and when those same EVMs are manipulated, how can the true verdict come out?

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    excellent!! especially the hurried appointment of new army chief.. i never thought about it.. superb!!

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    i wondered why they hurriedly placed new army chief… but never thought about this possibility… excellent analysis!!

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    yes, paper ballots are safer… it may take more time for counting and more man-power, but we will get a cleaner democracy in return… Its also impossible to carry out mass-scale rigging through paper ballots

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    bhayya, if you know any statistician, can you please ask him to study the relation between natio-wide distribution of faulty-EVMs and factors like (number of candidates contesting in each constituency, number of voters, current vote share of each party, current winner party etc etc).. i have always wondered why so many people, who are neither famous, nor did have the chance to get even 0.1% of votes are contesting for the sake of contesting…..is it to fulfill some number game to achieve the actual statistical effect of a nation-wide distribution of faulty-EVMs?

  • Vikram

    “all parties are the same” is the rubbish that media has propogated for so long that some ‘educated’ Indians have started believing the same. The reality is that BJP today stands apart from the rest of the established political class – Congress, SP, BSP, TMC, DMK etc. (AAP is a different topic of discussion, so lets keep it aside.) All reported incidents of booth capturing & poll violence involved non-BJP parties like TMC, SP. Overwhleming majority (over 90%) of incidents of money to bribe voters involves non-BJP parties like Congress, DMK, NCP. Overwhelming majority of incidents involving EVM malfunction were reported from non-BJP ruled states, in which the EVM was rigged to support non-BJP parties like Congress, SP. If despite all this FACTUAL evidence, you still want to believe the myth that EVM fraud somehow balances itself out since all parties resort to it, you are either delusional, ill-informed, or have a sinister agenda. BJP is not perfect and does have a few bad apples, but the core principles of the party are still robust & it is not institutionally depraved as Congress & its clones have become. Major part of credit for that goes to RSS, which has ensured BJP stays true to its ideals.

  • Sumedh

    > their methodologies are public

    No, they are not. Tell one media channel that has made public its raw numbers, normalization and seat conversion methodology etc. Tell one media channel that has made public its sampling distribution etc.

    More than all that, tell one media channel which has analysed and published reasons for the huge failures in the past including 2004/2009 and many assembly elections (TN 2011, Delhi etc). By contrast, US pollster Gallup posted a 17-page analysis on the reasons: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-2012_n_3384882.html

    > It would be difficult to coordinate rigging

    Why? Rigging handful of surveys is not difficult, but rigging thousands/lakhs of EVMs across the country so as to affect results of 50-100 odd constituencies is easy? Do you have a sense of proportion?

    Not to even go into details of why exit polls in India typically fail in modelling. Since you did not think it appropriate to discuss “seat by seat analysis” vs “modelling” etc, so let us forget all that. Perhaps it will be good for you to go through Gallup’s reasons for many of them apply in India too. Sampling is a problem, including silent voters in surcharged envs, oversampling of urban voters, conversion to seats and so on. For example, multi-cornered contests is where all these exit polls will usually go wrong, moreso because of their small sample size in a constituency and then modelling across regions/states.

    Exit polls are today a much much bigger blackbox than general elections. They have zero accountability too, and despite all of them having had egg on their faces multiple times, they have refused to be transparent at all nor have improved upon their basics.

  • Sumedh

    So if author claims that EVMs could be rigged at such a huge scale to make difference, why would it be any more difficult to rig a handful of exit polls? Do you have a sense of proportion on the number of EVMs that will need to be rigged to affect 50 odd constituencies compared to the handful of exit polls?
    And let us all ignore the clear-cut expose how most agencies manipulate data/sampling etc. depending on money provided as exposed in “Operation Prime Minister”.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    >rigging thousands/lakhs of EVMs across the country so as to affect results of 50-100 odd constituencies is easy?

    you have to look the controlling body also in both these cases. There may be thousands of EVMs, but all these EVMs are controlled by a single body of Government. That single body, which is part of goverment decides who makes these machines, and who transports it, and who handles it, and where is each ones destination, where these machines are kept, and even who guards these machines, prior & post elections.. A single entity decides all these! You should then check who is The goverment for the past 10 years, and their track record.

    In the case of channels, they are not controlled by a single entity. Their owners are different, their news point of view is different. But all of them were bashing Modiji, BJP and Gujarat continously for the past 10 years, not losing even a single chance.

    You can not make the whole world dark by closing your eyes.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    >why would it be any more difficult to rig a handful of exit polls? Do you have a sense of proportion

    you have to look the controlling body also in both these cases. There may be thousands of EVMs, but all these EVMs are controlled by a single body of Government. That single body, which is part of goverment decides who makes these machines, and who transports it, and who handles it, and where is each ones destination, where these machines are kept, and even who guards these machines, prior & post elections.. A single entity decides all these! You should then check who is The goverment for the past 10 years, and their track record.

    In the case of channels, they are not controlled by a single entity. Their owners are different, their news point of view is different. But all of them were bashing Modiji, BJP and Gujarat continously for the past 10 years, not losing even a single chance.

    You can not make the whole world dark by closing your eyes.

  • Sumedh

    I have already replied to this above, but it still is stuck in moderation. Please avoid pasting same replies in multiple threads.

  • BurnolForYou

    hey dumb moron Sumedh, you are an extra ordinarily foolish moron…. Get your facts straight first moronic idiot… Who told you congress is rigging EVMs going to selected constituencies and then selectively rigging EVMs one by one.. they dont need that to win..COngress has countless allies and clones, and they need only a situation where nobody gets majority.. They can still form a goverment by summing up their clones, who call them secular front… LOL… for this they dont have to got to each constituency moron, but they need to only rig 15% of EVMs on a global scale, such that those EVMs vote for one candidate only. The result will be that either they or their clones and allies will reap benefits or it will go for a situation where nobody gets 272+… even then they can form goverment through coalition with their clones or the so called third front… did you understand it now, you sdtupid moron? Just shut up idiot, if you dont have a brain or if you know nothing of politics

  • http://sankrant.org Sankrant Sanu

    NDTV has released its survey methodology and getting similar resuts. The sample size is also huge. One would be hard pressed to say NDTV is biased in favor of NDA. http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/lok-sabha-exit-and-post-poll-methodology-524084

  • Shiva

    Former Andhra CM YS Rajasekhara Reddy facilitated VS Sampath’s entry into Election Commission: Wikileaks

  • DBose2

    There was hardly any honest election in West Bengal, when thugs from Trinamul Congress took over the voting stations, have not allowed voters to come to the stations, and kicked out all agents from other parties. Election Commissioners, mainly Bihar IAS officers did nothing, perhaps they got instruction from Nitish Kumar not to disturb his friend Mamta Begum.

  • Rationalist Central

    EVMs SHOULD GIVE RECIEPTS.

    The reciept should have your vote serial number, date, voter id no, and who you voted for, clearly printed on the reciept, but not name and address for anonymity. If reciept is wrong, you will complain then and there. A faulty or tampered EVM will get caught early.

    If vote is being investigated for rigging, all votes (recalled reciepts) can be re verified. Printed receipts for every vote will also dissuade crony corrupt officials etc from conniving with a party and try rig the vote, for if there is a re-verification, and votes don’t tally, they might get caught, punished etc.

    ————

    I say make it ONLINE and with digitally signed reciepts that can’t be tampered with, and encryption for anonymous voting.

    Technology already exists and in use. ONLINE Banking and ATM technology. If we can trust this technology with lacs of our money, we can use it for our vote too. ONLINE VOTING and VOTER KIOSKS! Will also save election commision lots of money, as well as time and man hours, single phase voting open for one week for convinience of voters, can vote from home or from abroad and result in minutes after close of poll. Election commision can give voter password for online voters, upon application.

    While most voters in India who don’t use computers can vote at VOTER KIOSKS, (like ATM machines), get printed voter receipts just like ATMs give transaction receipts.

    All votes will also be transferred to election commision database electronically and instantly, so rigging is just not possible, and no one can steal or destroy voter machine or kiosk. Even if they destroy kiosks, vote has already been registered at central database. Database redundancy must be built in (multiple copies of the database) , under control of party agents, to prevent faul play at backend.

  • mangaldev

    Yes sir, the sample size is quite large, and the methodology also look robust. NDTV has been bashing BJP so hard and so if they say 279, the actual result they got must be above 300. We should also note that NDTV is saying UP will give 56 seats for BJP. But IBTL (india behind the lens) team had said one month ago that UP will give 57 seats! Nobody believed them when they said it then, but now its closer to truth. We can know in 24 hours for certain. Just drinking cup after cup of tea and waiting to see Lotus bloom, i have been waiting since 10 years for this moment.

  • Sumedh

    Ok, my previous reply did not make through. Let me try again.

    > you have to look the controlling body also in both these cases.

    So in that case no opposition party should have ever won an election (at least non-Congress one if you claim that only Congress is the one doing it). Given that this is not so by our history, the entire claim is bogus. Besides you have no idea of Govt, EC etc. if you think that entire thing is a monolith.

    And yet, Modi kept winning Gujarat continuously. Why would Congress Govt not tamper & defeat him if all that really goes as per the will of the “single entity”.

    Anyway, I didn’t want to go into details when debunking such a conspiracy theory, still here are the obvious epic flaws in the argument:

    a) It tries to claim recent exit polls are accurate. But accurate comparing to what? Well, the actual results which are themselves claimed to be rigged!

    b) So the author tries to tell us actual results are rigged, yet says exit polls are accurate basing them on the same “rigged results”. Bottomline: if you claim results are rigged, then there is no measure for accuracy of exit polls either. Hence if we accept author’s premise then everything we got so far has no credibility, be it results or be it exit polls.

    c) It does not go into details of why 2004/2009 results were so drastically different from exit polls. Well, yes, the claim that those were rigged too? But 2004 it was BJP Govt in centre. Besides which brings us to a) and b): if results were rigged how you know exit polls were any good, more-so because later it is claimed exit polls are accurate given the same results.

    d) Here’s are some of the problems with exit polls. All of them are absolutely opaque and we have no idea of the methodology, raw numbers, adjustments, vote share to seat conversion, sampling distribution etc. The article makes no mention or analysis of how issues with exit polls. Why channels never owned up and published even the reasons for their huge debacles of the past like Gallup did in US: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-2012_n_3384882.html. What improvements in the process have they brought about learning from the debacles?

    By contrast, at least we know transparently the actual poll methodology, raw constituency-wise numbers etc.

    > In the case of channels, they are not controlled by a single entity.

    Nearly all channels have corporate funding and all. Easy to build a conspiracy theory. Oh wait, we actually have evidence: “Operation Prime Minister”.

    Then again, how about at least a little evidence on this theory. Or this is again a conspiracy theory built out of joining together few unrelated facts and some insinuations.

  • जगत् सर्वम्

    You must be either ignorant or acting as ignorant. Becuase there are a lot of flaws in your arguments, and a lot of mistakes. YOu should know a few things before arguing meaninglessly, because i have no time to spend against ignorance, and no plans to educate you about Indian politics. You should understand the below facts first, and then go for a crash course on Indian political scenario and then you should take part in discussions to avoid wasting others time. Please, its a request.

    1) You are not aware of this simple fact that, EVMs were used for entire nation since 2004 elections only. You are talking like EVMs are being used in India since independence. I am beginning to wonder whether you are an Indian citizen at all, or in case you are, i am wondering about your politcal knowledge. Only last two elections used EVMs throughout india, and those two elections UPA won, the 2009 one was quite shocking for everybody too.

    2)YOu beleive that to rig an election the ruling party has to alter every EVM. Thats also not true in the Indian scenario. Because on 2009, it was estimated that altering EVMs only 10% nation-wide would suffice to create a hung parliament. Search internet for details, again i have no time and inclination to educate you on this

    3)You are saying that author compared exit polls to EVM produced results and thus author is wrong. This again shows how hurriedly you are creating your opinions..because had you read the article clearly, the author has written towards the top that, exit polls before 2004 were accurate, and when EVMs were first used nation -wide etc etc..

    I think these would suffice for now to blast your shell of ignorance and take you out on the path towards light..

    My request to you, please understand Indian political scenario first before taking part in political discussions, and thus avoid wasting others time, forcing them to educate you on these. Atleast read an article well, before climbing the high horse to wage your wars.

  • Sumedh

    Ok boss, keep your tone under check for meaningful discussion. If you think that I am too “ignorant” for you to “educate”, then take a walk and don’t bother replying.

    > 1) You are not aware of this simple fact that, EVMs were used for entire nation since 2004 elections only.

    First off, if EVMs can be rigged easily then paper ballots can be more easily so, which was one of the main criticisms of paper ballots (borne out by REAL FACTS/EVIDENCES unlike this “castles in the air” theory).

    Secondly, this entire “post-2004″ thing falls flat on its face because you ignored this in my comment: And yet, Modi kept winning Gujarat continuously. Why would Congress Govt not tamper & defeat him if all that really goes as per the will of the “single entity”.

    Modi and many BJP Govts have won many EVM elections in states, and some by small margins. Surely since Central Govt was Congress, it should have rigged those esp those in Gujarat to prevent the “hated Modi” from coming to power.

    > 2)YOu beleive that to rig an election the ruling party has to alter every EVM.

    Never said that, never implied that. On the other hand said in last to last comment: “rigging thousands/lakhs of EVMs across the country so as to affect results of 50-100 odd constituencies …”. Don’t waste words on straw-man arguments.

    > 3)You are saying that author compared exit polls to EVM produced results and thus author is wrong. This again shows how hurriedly you are creating your opinions..because had you read the article clearly, the author has written towards the top that, exit polls before 2004 were accurate

    And you clearly did not read the article carefully or understand it at all. THE WHOLE PREMISE IS THAT CURRENT DAY EXIT POLLS ARE MORE ACCURATE THAN EVER BEFORE. See the very first line of the article “Exit polls in India have become increasingly sophisticated”. If it were not so, then why bother with the latest exit polls at all (if they are not accurate)?

    My point was simple: How does author claim exit polls have increasingly become more accurate so recent ones should be accurate (despite many big, big recent examples to the contrary, but lets forget facts for a moment as this article does not bother itself with the burden of facts)? By comparing to actual results in state elections. But if EVMs themselves are not accurate/rigged, then how we know exit polls are accurate or not? Well we don’t, so then both exit polls as well as EVMs are suspect, then no way to measure accuracy of anything. Got it?





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